SUMMARY COMMENTS – APRIL 2025
In the recently concluded month of April, the evolution of the indicators we have been monitoring was as follows:
Uruguay’s Country Risk (measured by the UBI Index published by República AFAP) stood at 96 as of April 30, 2025, representing a monthly variation of 1.05%. Moreover, over the past 12 months, this index recorded a variation of 35.21% despite volatility in the emerging geopolitical landscape (for example, the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, combined with tensions in the Middle East, as well as the tariff war driven by the U.S. President. Additionally, there is internal uncertainty due to a recent change in government following last year’s election cycle). So far, in 2025, this indicator has shown a variation of 18.52%.
Regarding inflation, according to the publication made by the National Institute of Statisticas (INE), the data for April 2025 hs been released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025 showed a monthly variation of 0.32%, an accumulated variation of 2.7% for the year, and 5.35% over the las 12 months. As a result, the indicator remains within the target range over the las 12-month period (in fact, it has stayed witin this range for twenty – three consecutive months the longest such period since the inflation targeting framework was introduced in 2003), confirming the break in the acceleration trend that had been observed in the four months prior to September.
That said, a renewed deceleration began in the first month of the year in the annualized accumulated figure. In February, there was a slight increase (from 5.05% to 5.10%), which accelerated in March, reaching 5.67% in the annual accumulated total, and then declined in April to the aforementioned 5.35%. The variation recorded in the accumulated figure over the past twelve months is due to the exclusion of April 2024 (which had a 0.63% variation) and the inclusion of April 2025 (0.32%), which was lower. A significant factor behind this was the exchange rate, which will be discussed in more detail later.
Consequently, due to previous inflationary pressures—mainly driven by the exchange rate, as mentioned—the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), in its first Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting of the year, decided to increase the reference interest rate (monetary policy rate) by 25 basis points, raising it from 8.5% to 8.75% as a tool to prevent inflation from exceeding expectations. In the following COPOM meeting (February 2025), the BCU raised the rate again from 8.75% to 9%, maintaining it in March. In the April COPOM meeting, the rate was increased from 9% to 9.25%, in an effort to guide inflation toward the 4.5% target. The decision expected in the May COPOM meeting is being awaited with anticipation.
The main contributions—expressed in percentage points to the monthly variation of the general index—came primarily from the following divisions: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (0.20), Clothing and Footwear (0.05), and Transport (-0.03).
Below is a summary of the comments corresponding to the most notable divisions for the reference month, based on the most appropriate level of aggregation.
FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES: 0.78%
- Fresh, chilled, or frozen meat: 2.62%
Notable price increases were recorded in Rump Steak (3.57%), Ground Beef (2.05%), Short Ribs (2.07%), Chuck (3.32%), Lamb (9.49%), Whole Chicken (3.51%), Bone-in Chicken Cuts (3.95%), and Boneless Chicken Cuts (3.98%).
Price decreases were observed in Pork Loin and Pork Meat (–2.55%). - Milk, other dairy products, and eggs: 1.30%
Price increases were noted in Whole Pasteurized Milk (1.38%) and Chicken Eggs (2.52%). - Fruits and nuts: –2.38%
Price decreases were observed in Lemons (–14.51%) and Mandarins (–11.39%). - Vegetables, tubers, and legumes: 1.82%
Significant price increases were seen in Bell Peppers (45.93%), Tomatoes (43.06%), Carrots (6.70%), Onions, Scallions, and Green Onions (6.64%), and Corn (29.78%).
Price drops were recorded in Lettuce (–28.47%), Fresh or Refrigerated Spinach (–22.43%), and Sweet Potatoes (–12.30%). - Non-alcoholic beverages: 0.69%
Price increases were registered in Water (2.12%) and Soft Drinks (0.69%), while Instant Coffee saw a decrease (–2.95%).
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR: 2.30%
This increase is mainly explained by price rises at the beginning of the autumn-winter season in:
- Men’s clothing (1.47%), Women’s clothing (4.69%) and Women’s footwear (3.07%)
TRANSPORT: –0.27%
Notable price decreases were recorded in:
- Diesel fuel (–1.47%), Passenger transport with driver (–3.11%) and Airfare (–2.49%)
RESTAURANTS AND ACCOMMODATION SERVICES: 0.27%
There was a price increase in:
- Restaurants, cafés, and similar establishments (0.54%) and a decrease in accommodation services, hotels (–6.74%)
INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES: 0.36%
- Notable price increases were recorded in Mobile Medical Emergency Subscription (1.10%), Companion Services (1.75%) and Car Insurance (0.60%).
Inflation expectations for 2025 are around 6%, according to the Central Bank of Uruguay’s survey (5.78% in the latest survey from April 2025).
Meanwhile, core inflation (which excludes fruits and vegetables and fuels) registered a monthly variation of 0.35%, an accumulated variation of 2.42% for the year, and 5.70% over the last 12 months.
Regarding the exchange rate, the value of the interbank dollar (cash) as of April 30, 2025, was 41.949; this represents a negative variation of –0.42% for the month, –4.80% for the year, and an accumulated increase of 9.48% over the last 12 months. It is worth noting that the monetary authority did not have to intervene in the foreign exchange market during the month to influence the value of the U.S. dollar, although it did act in relation to the monetary policy interest rate (increased from 9% to 9.25%), which is used as a tool to fight inflation (in this case, aiming to steer it toward the 4.5% target).
It should be recalled that the increase recorded in September was the highest monthly rise since October 2023, and this was again surpassed in both November and December, totaling nine consecutive monthly increases. The dollar reached its highest value in five years, a trend that reversed in the first month of 2025, with a decline of –2.14%, followed by further drops of –1.25% in February, –1.08% in March, and –0.42% in April, as previously mentioned.
When considering international arbitrage, it was observed that the Euro recorded a monthly variation of 4.95% (strengthening again and significantly against the dollar for the second consecutive month, after five months of opposite performance, also showing a 6.27% variation over the last 12 months and 9.07% in the first four months of 2025). The Argentine Peso showed a variation of 9.12% in the month (a further weakening against the dollar, in this case notably greater than in previous months, with an increase of 33.58% over the last 12 months and 13.64% so far in 2025). Meanwhile, the Brazilian Real posted a negative monthly variation of –0.81% (a slight strengthening for the second consecutive month against the dollar, partially reversing the trend observed in previous months; over the past 12 months, it has increased by 9.21%, while in 2025 it has declined by –8.36%). In summary, in April the dollar strengthened against the Argentine Peso, while it weakened against the European and Brazilian currencies.
In another context, several data points related to economic activity were released, among which we highlight the most relevant:
The fiscal result for the twelve months through March for the Central Government – Social Security Bank (GC-BPS) stood at –3.1% of GDP. The inflow of funds to the Social Security Trust Fund (FSS), as established under Law No. 19,590, amounted to 0.1% of GDP. Therefore, the fiscal result of the GC-BPS excluding FSS revenues stood at –3.3% of GDP.
After accounting for other components, such as the performance of state-owned enterprises, revenues and expenditures of the GC-BPS, the result of the Non-Monetary Public Sector, and the overall result of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the Global Public Sector (GPS) result stood at –3.9% of GDP. Once adjusted for the effect of the FSS, it stood at –4.1% of GDP.
The labor market in March 2025 showed a slight deterioration compared to the previous month, with an unemployment rate of 8.00% (in February 2025 it was 7.9%; in January 2025 it reached 8.1%; and in December 2024 it stood at 7.4%), still remaining in a better position than in the pre-pandemic period It is observed that unemployment is higher in the interior of the country (8.6%), although it improved slightly from 8.7% in February, when it remained unchanged from January (8.7%), which had increased from 8.2% in December. That December figure had already been higher than the 7.8% recorded in November, which itself had improved by one-tenth of a percentage point from October, which had improved by eight-tenths compared to September, when it was 8.6%. In contrast, the capital recorded an unemployment rate of 7.1%, returning to the level observed in January 2025. This marked an increase from 6.6% in February, which had been half a percentage point lower than January’s 7.1%. That January figure was nearly one percentage point higher than the 6.2% registered in December, which had improved by one-tenth of a percentage point compared to November (6.3%), when it had improved by two-tenths relative to October, which in turn had improved by eight-tenths compared to September, when it was 7.3%.
Underemployment stood at 9.1%, a slight deterioration considering it was 9.0% in both January and February 2025; 9.1% in December 2024; 9.0% in November; 8.8% in October; 9.5% in September; and 9.4% in August. Informality was recorded at 22.3%, showing an improvement compared to February 2025 (22.5%), January 2025 (21.3%), and December 2024 (21.2%), which itself had improved from November, when it remained at a similar level to October (21.7%). In September, informality was 21.9%, and in August, 21.4%. In both cases, the indicators reflect relative stability.
The activity rate in March stood at 64.5% (similar to previous months, with small fluctuations up and down. In this case, it remained unchanged from February, which had decreased by 0.01% compared to January, which was equal to December. December had been 0.1% higher than November, which in turn was 0.2% above October, which had increased by 0.4% from September, which itself had risen by 0.3% from August). This figure also shows an improvement compared to April 2019—pre-pandemic—when the rate was 61.5%.
The employment rate was 59.3% (a slight decline compared to February 2025, when it remained unchanged from January 2025 at 59.4%; in December it was 59.8%, the same as in November; in October it was 59.6%; in September, 59.5%; while in July it was 58.8% and in August, 59.1%).
Nonetheless, these figures are better when compared on a year-over-year basis, and also in comparison to 2019.
The Average Wage Index (Índice Medio de Salarios – I.M.S.) showed a year-on-year variation of 5.83% as of March 2025 (compared to 5.81% in February; 5.77% in January 2025; 6.39% in December 2024; 6.47% in November; 6.75% in October; and 6.95% in September), which is higher than inflation, indicating growth in real wages. However, it has not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The monthly variation was 0.04%, resulting in a cumulative increase of 4.17% so far this year. The 12-month rolling increase, as mentioned earlier, stands at 5.83%.
The D.G.I (Tax Administration Directorate) published the preliminary revenue report for March 2025, which shows the following:
Net revenue (discounting tax refunds) shows a year on year variation, in real terms, of 12.3%.
Meanwhile, gross revenue at current prices shows a variation of 18.50% in March. When discounting the effect of inflation, the year on year variation in revenue was 12.0%
Total gross revenue over the past nine months has shown positive annual comparisons. In the 12-month cumulative period, the annual comparison was 4.8%, and in March 2025, the real annual comparison was 2.1%. Additionally, the real variation for the period January – March 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 was 7.7%.
The data from March showed that tax revenue continues to recover. After registering an annual decline of 1.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, it grew by 2.4% in real terms in 2024 compared to 2023.
Regarding foreign trade, Uruguay XXI released its report for April.
In the report based on data from the Uruguayan Export Union (U.E.U.), a 4% annual increase in exports (including Free Trade Zones) was recorded in April.
According to this report, foreign trade data prepared by the Exporters Union and the Uruguay XXI Institute show that exports of beef, cellulose, dairy products, and beverage concentrates were key drivers behind the growth in exports during the fourth month of 2025.
For the year to date in 2025, with the first four months completed, goods exports – including those from Free Trade Zones – saw an annual comparison increase of 4%.
The balanced for the first month of 2025 was positive. Beef, which experienced a 24% year on year growth during the period, solidified its position as the most exported product. Cellulose remained in second place. The top five were completed by dairy products, beverage concentrates and wheat.
The main products exports in April 2025 were, in this order, as follows:
- Beef was the leading export product in April 2025, with sales totaling US$ 226 million, reflecting a 32% year on year growth. Over 33,000 tons were exported (a 7% annual increase), with United States being the main destination (US$ 96 million and 13,00 tons) , representing 42% of the total export value. China ranked second with placement of US$ 48 million, followed by the European Union with US$ 44 million. In total, beef accounted for 22% of the month’s exports.
- Cellulose ranked second with exports totaling US$ 87 million. China was the main destination, with placements amounting US$ 71 million, representing 38% of the total, followed by the European Union (US$ 67 million) and the United States (US$ 30 million). Despite a decline compared to the same month in 2024, the product maintained a strong presence in the export basket.
- Dairy products ranked third, with exports totaling US$ 64 million. Brazil was the main market, with placements of US$ 2 million, followed by Algeria (US$ 15 million), Russia and Chile, each with US$ 3million. Notable sales also went to Mauritania, Saudi Arabia and Georgia. The main product within the category was whole powdered milk, accounting for 64% of exports, followed by butter with 11% of the total within category.
- Beverage concentrates consolidated their position as the fourth most exported product of the month with sales totaling US$63 million. Mexico led the destinations with placements amounting to US$ 20 million (32% of the total), followed by Guatemala with US$ 1 million and Brazil with US$ 8 million. Notable shipments were also made to the European Union, Ecuador and Jamaica.
- Wheat was the fifth most exported product in April, with sales totaling US$ 51 million and over 221,000 tons shipped. Brazil remained the main destination with US$ 44million, while Mauritania emerged as a significant new market with placements amounting to US$ million.
- Vehicle exports ranked sixth, totaling US$ 45 million, with a 1% annual decline. Brazil was the main destination with US$ 34 million, followed by Argentina with US$ 9 million. Shipments were also recorded to Chile, Guatemala, and Bolivia.
- Rice was the seventh most exported product, with sales totaling US$ 41 million. The European Union led the destinations with purchases of US$ 13 million, followed by Costa Rica (US$ 9 million) and Peru (US$ 8 million). Turkey, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and Chile also formed part of the month’s active markets.
- In eighth place, meat by-products totaled US$ 38 million, with a 14% annual increase. China consolidated its position as the main destination with US$ 19 million, followed by the United States with US$ 12 million. Other notable destinations included Japan, the European Union, Egypt, and Brazil. In addition, increases in export volumes to Africa and the Middle East stood out.
- Wood and wood products reached exports totaling US$ 34 million. The United States was the main destination, with US$ 9 million in exports, followed by the European Union and China with US$ 7 million and US$ 4 million, respectively.
- Pharmaceutical products ranked tenth in the export ranking, with sales totaling US$ 27 million. Argentina was the main destination, with placements amounting to US$ 5 million, followed by Paraguay and Brazil, both with US$ 3 million. Exports were also recorded to the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Chile, with shipments close to US$ 2 million in each case.
The main destinations for exports in April were, in this order, Brazil, China, the United States, the European Union, and Argentina.
- Brazil remained Uruguay´s main trading partner in April 2025, with exports totaling US$ 198 million, representing a 6% year on year decline. The most exported products to the Brazilian market included wheat (US$ 44 million), vehicles (US$ 34 million), and dairy products (US$ 21 million). Notable shipments also included malt, plastics, margarines and beverage concentrates.
- China was the second most important destination, with sales reaching US$ 193 million, representing 2% year on year increase compared to April 2024. Exports to this market continued to be led by cellulose (US$ 71 million) and beef (US$ 48 million). Notable was the recovery of soybean placements, which reached US$ 22 million. There were also increases in the export of meat by-products, precious stones, and wool.
- The United States ranked as the third largest destination, with exports totaling US$ 62 million and 41% year on year increase. This growth was primarily driven by strong rise in beef sales, which nearly doubled in value, reaching US$ 96 million, accounting for 59% of the total exports to this country. Notable shipments also included wood and wood products (US$ 9 million), medical devices and instruments (US$ 4 million), and citrus fruits (US$ 3 million).
- The European Union ranked fourth, with total exports amounting to US$ 153 million, reflecting a 20% increase compared to the same month of the previous year. The most exported products to the bloc were cellulose (US$ 67 million), beef (US$ 44 million), and rice (US$ 13 million). Notable exports also included wool, wood, and beverage concentrates.
- Argentina remained the fifth largest export destination, with sales totaling US$ 42 million, marking a 7% decrease. Increases were observed in products such as vehicles (US$ 9 million), margarines and oils (US$ 5 million), pharmaceuticals (US$ 5 million), and cleaning products (US$ 4 million), while exports of cellulose, plastics, and beverage concentrates declined.
It is also necessary to mention the growing importance of service exports. To illustrate the significance of this aspect, it is worth noting that in 2024, services accounted for 30% of the country’s total exports.
Within this category, we find exports of traditional services such as transportation and related services, tourism (which includes, among others, gastronomy, hospitality, transportation, etc.), and non-traditional services, which we could refer to as global services. These include professional and consulting services in various areas (IT, finance, and communications), intellectual property, cultural and recreational personal services, technical, business, and others.
Explore the highlights of our Annual Economic Report 2024
