š The Getulio Vargas Foundation of Brazil, through the Brazilian Institute of Economics, published its Latin American Economic Survey for the second quarter of 2022, highlighting #Uruguay’s position as the country with the best Economic Climate in Latin America.
š The survey was carried out in the second quarter of 2022 among 145 experts in the economies of 15 Latin American countries. The Latin American Economic Survey is designed for monitoring and forecasting economic trends.
The report analyzes three aspects:
- Economic Climate Index, (ICE)
- Current Situation Index, (ISA)
- Expectations Index,(IE).
š Survey result for the second quarter of 2022.
The overall result of the survey indicates that the Economic Climate in Latin America worsens with more pessimistic expectations for the coming months. The ICE fell 11.7 points between the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022. In the same period of 2020, the ICE fell 46.1 points, when the pandemic became the priority issue on the agenda of all countries, but at that time began a path of ascent. In the third quarter of 2021, the index reached the neutral level of 100 points, but fell again in the following quarter, which suggests that the result is not explained only by the impact of the pandemic.
However, some countries improve expectations. Among them, Uruguay stands out with the highest growth since the last survey.
ā¬ļø The ICE increased in only two countries in the first quarter-second quarter period of this year 2022: Uruguay (14.2 points) and Brazil (2.1 points). In absolute terms, Uruguay obtained 149.6 points well above the second and third Colombia (96.7) and Paraguay (91.2). The Economic Climate indicators for Argentina (46 points) and Chile (39.1 points) are the lowest in the region.
In the Index of the Current Situation (ISA), four countries registered improvement, Uruguay standing out again for the variation vs. the 1st quarter with 33.3 points more, while it is followed by Brazil with 14.6 points more, Colombia with 7.5 points and Bolivia with a variation positive of 3.6 points.
In absolute terms, the Current Situation Index shows Uruguay leading with 133.3 followed by Colombia (120 points) and Bolivia (75 points).
Regarding the Expectations Indicator (IE), Uruguay also appears in first place (166.7 points), followed by Paraguay (133.3) and, in third place, Brazil (100).
šŗš¦ Impact of War in Ukraine.
Regarding the impact of the war in Ukraine, Uruguay is among the countries that show a neutral effect on GDP and the trade balance, although an increase in inflation is predicted. The region’s average shows a deterioration in GDP because of the war.
š GDP growth projections for 2022
Graph 6 shows the experts’ forecasts for GDP growth in 2022 made in the 1st quarter of 2022 and the 2nd quarter of 2022.
In this survey, the greatest positive quarterly variation was obtained by Uruguay (with +0.8 percentage points) followed by Colombia (with +0.4 percentage points). The upward revision of the GDP in Uruguay coincides with the improvement of the ICE between the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, the growth for 2022 was revised downwards in Mexico, Chile and Paraguay, with differences of 0.6 points percentage points, 0.9 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, which is compatible with the worsening of the economic climate.
š Main structural and conjunctural problems
Finally, the survey raised what are the main economic concerns for each of the countries. In Uruguay, the lack of qualified labor is the most punctuated problem (83.3), while the lack of innovation, inadequate infrastructure, increased income inequalities and lack of international competitiveness are in second order with 66.7 points.
There is a gap in the vision of the internal problems in Uruguay and in the rest of the countries of the region. There are three problems that appear with 0 points in Uruguay, that is, they are not assigned any difficulty, while in Latin America they are among the 9 that receive the most attention. These are Corruption (82.6 points), Legal and administrative barriers for investors (70.6 points), Political Instability. (60.9 points)
